Newsletter · March 15, 2026

Early Riders | Open Range Weekly | 03.15.26

Bitcoin was up 6.2% this week to a market capitalization of $1.43T.


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Oil, War, and the Case for Scarce Assets:

Global shipping and logistics through the Strait of Hormuz have effectively ground to a halt as geopolitical tensions escalate in the Middle East, forcing the U.S. to deploy significant military resources to secure critical trade routes for oil. The U.S. has already spent over $11 billion on military operations related to Iran in the first week of the conflict, with costs accelerating as logistical support intensifies. The administration may request up to an additional $50 billion if required as the war continues. This mounting fiscal pressure comes at a time when the U.S. is already grappling with a $36 trillion national debt and persistent budget deficits.

The inevitable response will be the same: monetary expansion through the printing press. Governments facing wartime costs rarely choose austerity, and the current administration faces little appetite for spending cuts or tax increases to fund Middle East operations. As the Federal Reserve accommodates swelling defense budgets and fiscal deficits, each dollar printed continues to dilute the purchasing power of existing dollars. This currency debasement is an observable reality, with gas prices rising nearly $0.50 per gallon in response to oil rising over 50% since the start of the conflict. Both investors and individuals need scarce and finite assets that remain strong in response to never-ending monetary debasement.

Bitcoin's fixed supply of 21 million coins stands in stark contrast to fiat currencies that expand to fund military campaigns, pandemic relief, bank bailouts, and every other government priority. While policymakers print dollars to finance geopolitical conflicts, Bitcoin holders benefit from an asset whose monetary policy cannot be altered by any government, central bank, or wartime emergency. In an era where fiscal discipline takes a back seat to political agendas, scarce and finite assets like Bitcoin become essential long-term stores of value as the dollar's purchasing power erodes under the weight of unlimited printing.

For investors and institutions looking beyond the next quarter, wars are expensive, printing is inevitable, and scarcity is valuable. The U.S. military's open-ended commitment to Middle East operations virtually guarantees continued monetary expansion regardless of which party controls Congress or the White House. As traditional safe havens like bonds offer negative real yields in inflationary environments and gold faces storage and transportation challenges, Bitcoin's digital scarcity, portability, and resistance to confiscation position it as the premier hard asset for a world where geopolitical instability drives perpetual currency debasement.


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