Newsletter · July 13, 2026

Early Riders | Open Range Weekly | 07.13.26

Bitcoin gained ~1% this week to a market capitalization of $1.26T.


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Industry & Institutional Updates
Regulatory & Sovereign Updates
What We're Watching: Polymarket Plugs Into Bitcoin's Payment Layer

Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, just launched instant Bitcoin deposits over the Lightning Network, powered by Spark, the bitcoin Layer 2 from the Lightspark team. Sats now move from any Lightning wallet to a live position in under a second, at near-zero fees, versus the 10 to 60 minutes the old on-chain route took. Deposits stay self-custodial until a trade is placed.

Prediction markets are in a full institutional breakout: combined monthly volume across Polymarket and Kalshi hit $44.8 billion in June, up roughly 75% from May, ICE committed up to $2 billion to Polymarket, and one bank forecast puts annual volume at $1 trillion by 2030. Polymarket is the largest consumer app yet to route money over bitcoin rails.

Spark is a statechain Layer 2 that moves ownership of on-chain coins by rotating keys between the user and a set of independent operators, with a pre-signed exit back to the base layer at all times. Every mainstream app that accepts sats makes bitcoin the funding asset. A Lightning deposit hands over no card number and no bank login, allowing the payment itself to become the credential.


Chart of the Week

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